troy posted on December 28, 2011 13:26
AIKMAN RATINGS COMNENTARY
Thru Week 16
With one week remaining, the Packers hold the lead in the 2011 Aikman Combined Ratings, but the close proximity of the Ravens, 49ers, Saints, Patriots, Texans and Lions indicates a very competitive playoff season is ahead of us.
Interestingly, of the top 10 teams in the current Aikman Combined, the top nine are in the playoff field and the #10 Cowboys could join them. It is not a perfect match, but the top 10 is closely aligned to the likely final seedings.
On the other hand, if you merely add up the NFL’s offensive and defensive rankings, based solely on yards gained, the leading team, the Eagles, with a combined ranking of 11, will not make the playoffs, nor will the Chargers who are third at a combined 17.
There are 17 teams with a lower combined NFL offense-defense total than the Packers (offense 5, defense 31 for 36), including the Redskins.
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The Saints, Packers and Patriots have been sensational on offense this year – and at the moment stand as three of the top five teams in Aikman History which dates to 1995.
2007 New England 99.0
2011 New Orleans 97.6
2011 Green Bay 95.9
2004 Indianapolis 94.4
2011 New England 94.3
The falloff from these three clubs is considerable this year, down to 88.3 for the Panthers (who were 32nd last year).
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The 49ers (86.0) and Ravens (84.3) continue to have the two best Aikman Defenses. No other team is over 80.
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Troy Aikman invented the Aikman Ratings because he believed offenses and defenses could be better evaluated than merely by comparing yardage totals.
This was again shown this week in two high profile games.
On Sunday night, the Packers beat the Bears, 35-21, behind another brilliant performance by Aaron Rodgers. Yet it was the Bears, with an advantage of 441 to 363 in yards who saw their official NFL ratings for offense and defense improve compared to Green Bay’s. The Aikman Game Ratings had it right, with a 109.4 to 84.7 advantage for the Packers.
Then on Monday, the Saints rolled over the Falcons, 45-16. However, Atlanta was the team with the 469 to 463 edge in yards gained. The Aikman Game Ratings had it 108.2 to 67.6 in favor of New Orleans.
Amazingly, the Packers have been outgained on the season (5,932 to 6,010) yet stand 14-1. Flipping their defensive rating around the axis of 75.0, we can see that the Packers have an Aikman Offense advantage of 95.9 to 80.4 over their opponents’ offenses, much more in keeping with a great winning record.
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 16, 2011
--------- Aikman -------- ------- NFL --------
Rank Record Team Combined Off Def Off Def Combined
1 14-1 Packers 165.5 95.9 69.6 5 31 36
2 11-4 Ravens 164.0 79.7 84.3 15 3 18
3 12-3 49ers 163.7 77.7 86.0 26 4 30
4 12-3 Saints 162.7 97.6 65.0 1 26 27
5 12-3 Patriots 162.2 94.3 67.9 2 32 34
6 10-5 Texans 161.7 82.6 79.2 12 2 14
7 10-5 Lions 161.5 87.0 74.5 7 20 27
8 9-6 Falcons 157.5 83.8 73.7 10 12 22
9 11-4 Steelers 155.9 81.4 74.5 11 1 12
10 8-7 Cowboys 155.0 83.6 71.4 9 14 23
11 8-7 Jets 153.3 76.8 76.5 27 7 34
12 6-9 Panthers 153.1 88.3 64.9 4 22 26
13 7-8 Bears 151.8 75.5 76.3 20 18 38
14 7-8 Eagles 151.7 80.5 71.2 3 8 11
15 7-8 Seahawks 150.4 73.3 77.1 28 9 37
16 8-7 Titans 150.3 78.2 72.0 17 17 34
17 8-7 Giants 149.8 81.2 68.6 8 28 36
18 5-10 Dolphins 149.6 75.3 74.3 19 16 35
19 9-6 Bengals 148.9 75.6 73.3 24 6 30
20 7-8 Chargers 148.8 83.3 65.4 6 11 17
21 3-12 Vikings 145.2 81.2 64.0 18 25 43
22 8-7 Raiders 144.2 79.0 65.3 13 29 42
23 5-10 Redskins 143.9 71.1 72.8 16 13 29
24 7-8 Cardinals 143.8 71.3 72.5 23 19 42
25 4-11 Browns 143.3 70.3 73.0 29 10 39
26 4-11 Jaguars 143.2 68.9 74.3 32 5 37
27 6-9 Bills 142.9 77.0 65.9 14 24 38
28 8-7 Broncos 141.6 73.6 68.0 22 23 45
29 6-9 Chiefs 137.2 66.1 71.1 25 15 40
30 2-13 Rams 131.0 63.5 67.6 31 21 52
31 4-11 Buccaneers 130.9 69.7 61.2 21 30 51
32 2-13 Colts 127.2 67.3 59.9 30 27 57
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 16, 2011
Aik NFL Team AER
1 1 Saints 97.6
2 5 Packers 95.9
3 2 Patriots 94.3
4 4 Panthers 88.3
5 7 Lions 87.0
6 10 Falcons 83.8
7 9 Cowboys 83.6
8 6 Chargers 83.3
9 12 Texans 82.6
10 11 Steelers 81.4
11 8 Giants 81.2
12 18 Vikings 81.2
13 3 Eagles 80.5
14 15 Ravens 79.7
15 13 Raiders 79.0
16 17 Titans 78.2
17 26 49ers 77.7
18 14 Bills 77.0
19 27 Jets 76.8
20 24 Bengals 75.6
21 20 Bears 75.5
22 19 Dolphins 75.3
23 22 Broncos 73.6
24 28 Seahawks 73.3
25 23 Cardinals 71.3
26 16 Redskins 71.1
27 29 Browns 70.3
28 21 Buccaneers 69.7
29 32 Jaguars 68.9
30 30 Colts 67.3
31 25 Chiefs 66.1
32 31 Rams 63.5
NFL Average 78.7
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 16, 2011
Aik NFL Team AER
1 4 49ers 86.0
2 3 Ravens 84.3
3 2 Texans 79.2
4 9 Seahawks 77.1
5 7 Jets 76.5
6 18 Bears 76.3
7 1 Steelers 74.5
8 20 Lions 74.5
9 16 Dolphins 74.3
10 5 Jaguars 74.3
11 12 Falcons 73.7
12 6 Bengals 73.3
13 10 Browns 73.0
14 13 Redskins 72.8
15 19 Cardinals 72.5
16 17 Titans 72.0
17 14 Cowboys 71.4
18 8 Eagles 71.2
19 15 Chiefs 71.1
20 31 Packers 69.6
21 28 Giants 68.6
22 23 Broncos 68.0
23 32 Patriots 67.9
24 21 Rams 67.6
25 24 Bills 65.9
26 11 Chargers 65.4
27 29 Raiders 65.3
28 26 Saints 65.0
29 22 Panthers 64.9
30 25 Vikings 64.0
31 30 Buccaneers 61.2
32 27 Colts 59.9
NFL Average 71.3
Ratings Courtesy of STATS LLC